by Hillary LaClair, Senior Editor
March 27, 2009
Yet another study as emerged that pegs online poker has a game of skill rather than a game of chance. Research shows that in 103 million hands played of Texas Hold’em poker, 75 percent of those hands did not make it to the river, or rather that those playing them won due to their betting strategy.
In the remaining quarter of hands played that actually made it to the showdown, the player whose hand had the best five cards only won 50.3 percent of the time. Of the 49.7 percent of the hands that were left over, the player with the best hand folded before the showdown. Statistically, according to the study, the best hand only won 12 percent of the time, thus proving that Texas Hold’em can be viewed as 88 percent skill-based - putting a huge damper on the anti-gambling laws that criminalize online poker because it is a game of chance.
“As a poker player, I can tell you that knowing when to hold or fold is not based solely on the cards that are dealt, but a series of decisions based on skill and the actions taken by other players,” said PPA chairman, Alfonse D’Amato. “This study provides the raw data to back up the compelling arguments made by poker players around the world that it’s skill, not pure luck, that determines the outcome of this game.”
The results of the study will no doubt by pushed by PPA members and other online poker activists such as Congressman Barney Frank who has made repeated attempts to have the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act overturned. It has been used by the PPA in state court, in the past two lawsuits wherein the Judges ruled defendants not guilty of gambling charges – one in Pennsylvania and one in South Carolina.
Cigital headed the study based on 103 hands played on popular online poker brand, PokerStars. The study omitted play money and heads-up games as well as lower stakes games to perhaps better show that poker players play better when there is something on the line.
Not everyone was convinced by the study. Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal felt that the decisions made were based on the cards dealt, “which is entirely a matter of luck,” and criticized the study for not answering “the question of how showdowns and best-hand wins would look in a game of pure skill, or of pure chance.”
But legislators have argued, and court rulings have reflected this, that the decision to rule that poker is a game of skill comes from it being “predominantly skill-based.” One may certainly present the argument that there is more skill involved in online poker than there is in state lotteries or horse racing wagers.
There have been other similar studies, such as one last year at the Case Western Reserve University, which show that poker is a game of skill. The research group sampled students with no experience playing poker and split them into two groups. One was given a chart showing the odds of each two-card starting hand winning, while the other group was given information about the history of poker. The first group played significantly better, not surprisingly.
The study sampled nearly 1,000 hands, and some argue that it only tests one skill in poker. It omitted the possibility of reading another player’s tells, which is undoubtedly hard to account for, the fact that many professional poker players have starting hand odds and post-flop odds memorized, the endurance involved in a long game, the ability to manage a bankroll wisely, etc.
“The question of whether poker is a game of predominant skill or chance is not about the player’s ego, but the nature and legal protections of the game,” said PPA Executive Director John Pappas, when asked about the study’s results and its criticisms. “In courtrooms across the country, judges and juries are finding that poker is a game of skill – not chance like lotteries or slot machines – and this study confirms that fact.”
Given the opportunity to present these studies before Congress again, online poker may have a chance of being exempted from the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, which defines illegal betting or wagering as including “the purchase of a chance or opportunity to win a lottery or other prize (which opportunity to win is predominantly subject to chance.).”
“If skill games are not unlawful under applicable state of Federal law, then they are not unlawful under this act,” said Las Vegas attorney with the law firm of Lewis and Roca, considered to be a leading authority on legal gaming. “The sponsors of this legislation repeatedly asserted that nothing in this Act converts currently legal activities to unlawful activities.”
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