Ed Caravale
editor, Poker Intensity
Anybody who survived elementary school knows how to gamble. It usually came down to "Bet you can\'t..." or "Bet you won\'t..." do something. The payoff was usually a bit of added respect from our peers. And then it never stopped. Grown millionaires with nothing to prove or gain are still captivated by the prospect of proving they can beat the system, they can do what others think is impossible.
Unfortunately, most of us gamble impulsively. There\'s something almost magical about going against the odds and winning. The problem is, if you go against the odds and win, it\'s pure luck, something professional gamblers avoid with a passion. If, on the other hand, you take the time to understand how the odds work, and what it takes to turn them in your favor, then you can start winning a few more than you\'ll lose.
It all begins with the basic odds breakdown. If you flip a coin, you face even odds that it\'ll land on one of two outcomes. Either heads or tails. Basically, your chances are 50/50 or, using probability, 2 to 1 (you have two choices and one possible favorable outcome). What exactly does that mean?
Basically, if you flipped a coin 1000 times, chances are you would end up pretty close to logging in 500 heads and 500 tails. If, on the other hand, you only flip the coin 1 time there is a 100% probability that either head or tails will take all the money. Does that mean the odds didn\'t work? No, it actually makes the first vital point you need to remember when gambling. The longer you play, the better the chances are the odds will play themselves out. If you\'re depending on sheer luck to win (hoping to roll a 4 on a first roll of a 6 sided dice - odds are 6 to 1 against you) then you\'re much better off just putting all your money on the table and hoping you get lucky. If you roll the dice twice, hoping to get a 4 each time, you\'ve now turned the odds against you to 36 to 1 (there are 36 possibilities and only 1 favorable outcome). That\'s how casinos stay in business. Yes, you may win $100, but if you stay long enough, the casino will eventually end up getting the $4 or $5 per $100 you bet in the end (most casino games tilt the odds around 4% to 5% against you).
But that coin flip may not have been fair. If you don\'t know all the facts, you may be betting against a stacked deck. If I somehow weighted down one side of the coin (with a drop of lead or some rub on putty), it increases the odds of the coin falling on the weighted side. The side that\'s not weighted will come up more than the weighted side (which will end up on the bottom more often). You may think you\'re going to end up getting back exactly what you bet in the end (if we both begin with the same initial bet), but will eventually get back only the amount the new odds allow for. That\'s what happens when a gambler is cheating, or there\\\'s something about a system you haven\'t considered. The classic example here is playing roulette. If you look at a roulette wheel, you\'ll find there are 36 numbers on the dial. If you place a bet on a specific number, the casino pays out 36 to one. That sounds pretty straightforward, doesn\'t it? If you were to put a dollar on every number on the table, the dealer would theoretically return all $36 you bet after every spin. The problem is, you didn\'t look at the wheel carefully enough. At the top of the wheel there\'s either one or two extra green numbers. They\'re marked with a 0 and/or a 00. That\'s where the casino gets it\'s edge. If the wheel only has one green slot (marked 0), then there are now 37 numbers on the wheel, meaning that every 37 th spin you would loose all your money. You would still break even on the other 36 spins (if you played long enough), but on the 37 th roll, you\'d loose $36. Basically, the odds are 37 to 36 in your favor of breaking even, but for every $100 you spend, the house is still going to keep $2.70. If the wheel has two green slots (0 and 00) then it now has 38 slots and you\'re going to lose twice every 38 times, or once every 16 times (and you\'ll still lose all $36 every time you lose). In this scenario, the house will end up keeping $5.26 for every $100 you spend. Most people don\'t even bother to look and see how many slots the wheel has (and nowadays most casinos know this, and opt for two slots). But if you simply looked at how many slots the wheel had you could roughly double your odds of winning (or only lose about half as many times).
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